COP29, the 29th UN annual conference on climate change, was held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November 2024. Every COP conference is an important opportunity for international collaboration on climate change. COP29 will focus on how to make finance available to developing countries for climate action.
COP29 is already contentious because Azerbaijan’s economy is highly dependent on fossil fuels, the main cause of climate change. That means that Azerbaijan’s government, which will preside over the summit, has a strong incentive to avoid rapid multilateral progress towards phasing out fossil fuels. As we approach 2024, the global landscape is characterized by unprecedented geopolitical volatility.
More than 50 countries, accounting for half of the global population, are going to the polls, with high levels of political uncertainty across many of the world’s largest economies.
Additionally, ongoing conflicts, extreme weather events, trade disputes and resource competition are contributing to geopolitical volatility.
With the world nearly halfway through a “critical decade” for climate action, overcoming geopolitical risks to start rapidly cutting emissions is paramount to limiting global warming.
Carbon Brief asked a range of scientists, policy experts and campaigners from around the world what thought were the biggest geopolitical risks to climate action in 2024.
Some of the challenges as mentioned by these experts are listed below:
1. Dr. Dhanasree Jayaram: South Asia is fraught with multiple crises, including political instability, socio-economic uncertainty, ecological fragility and resource inaccessibility. Both internal and transboundary challenges impede much-needed climate action to protect the most vulnerable populations in the region. The region is not immune to global developments such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East either, as they have had adverse impacts on the countries’ energy and food security – making them less climate-resilient.
The governance gap is exacerbated by regional geopolitical tensions too. For example, the India-China conflict poses immense risks to transboundary climate and water cooperation. In fact, border infrastructure expansion and troop buildup could increase fossil fuel dependencies and socio-ecological vulnerabilities, especially in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region that sustains major ecosystems and river basins of South Asia.
More importantly, the lack of trust and robust institutional arrangements, despite common/shared challenges, hampers regional cooperation. While many transboundary ecological concerns in the region such as climate migration, fisheries management and air pollution lack governance mechanisms, many mutually beneficial opportunities are not being capitalized on, such as cross-border renewable energy trade.
2. Anna Ackermann: The ongoing military conflicts are likely to escalate. Having moved from authoritarianism to totalitarianism, Russia keeps running the economy and financing its war against Ukraine – the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II – with fossil fuels. Russia is gaining billions of dollars weekly from its oil and gas exports while increasing military spending to a record $110bn this year. As Ukraine struggles to protect itself without sufficient international support and an unstable situation with the upcoming US elections, European countries boost their defence preparedness. This sets security on top of the agenda both on the national level and globally – during most world leader meetings.
3. Iskander Erzini Vernoit: One great risk is that geopolitical rivalries between the so-called superpowers distract from the urgent need to scale up finance from the world’s richer countries to the world’s poorer countries, amid widespread sovereign debt distress and a shrinking window to deliver the Paris Agreement and UN Sustainable Development Goals.
4. Faten Aggad: Also, internationally, the major risk is emission increase due to the issues on the Red Sea shipping route (estimated at [being an increase in emissions up to] 11%), as well as an announced increase in weapon manufacturing due to increased demands. Considering that the defence sector's estimated carbon footprint stands at 5.5% of global emissions, which is concerning.
COP and Geopolitical Tensions: Past Impacts
Geopolitical crises have historically influenced the outcomes of COP meetings, with negotiations often reflecting broader international relations and conflicts.
COP15 (2009, Copenhagen): The financial crisis of 2008 and global economic instability affected countries' willingness to commit to ambitious climate targets. There was a significant divide between developed and developing countries over financial commitments and the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." This meeting ended without a binding agreement, and the Copenhagen Accord fell short of expectations due to these tensions.
COP21 (2015, Paris): The Paris Agreement marked a turning point in climate diplomacy, despite ongoing US-China tensions. Both countries managed to collaborate for the sake of reaching an agreement, but the geopolitical context still influenced the flexibility built into the accord, allowing for voluntary national commitments rather than mandatory targets.
COP26 (2021, Glasgow): The conference was shaped by several factors, including the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. Although agreements on coal reduction and climate finance were made, some pledges were softened to accommodate various national interests.
The Way Forward
COP28 made groundbreaking progress, including an agreement to ‘transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems’ for the first time in 28 years of negotiations.
Yet the COP28 agreement was vastly insufficient to meet the climate challenge. At COP29, avoiding backsliding on existing commitments will be vital, and progress on new measures will be difficult to achieve.
Parties must enable money to do the talking and agree on a solid, wide-ranging, and sufficient NCQG on climate finance. They must also avoid common COP distractions, such as announcing new initiatives under the presidency ‘Action Agenda’ – and keep to the heart of the matter: how to quickly, efficiently and fairly phase out fossil fuel use.
Diligent attention must be paid to the Paris Agreement structures, goals and requirements. It is this that will best serve the needs of a warming, and increasingly conflicted world.
References
Skidmore, C., & Farrell, W. (n.d.). COP-Out? A brief history of the United Nations climate change conferences: COPs 1-26. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/programs/senior.fellows/2021-22/Chris%20Skidmore%20COP-Out%20A%20Brief%20History%20of%20the%20UN%20COP%20process.pdf
Lempriere, M. (2024, May 22). Experts: What are the biggest geopolitical risks to climate action in 2024? Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/experts-what-are-the-biggest-geopolitical-risks-to-climate-action-in-2024/
What is COP29 and why is it important? Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/what-cop29-and-why-it-important
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