Introduction
The AUKUS Pact, a landmark trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, stands as a pivotal moment in Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
A common goal of preserving a "free and open Indo-Pacific," a phrase often used in defense and foreign policy circles, stands as the foundation of the AUKUS agreement. Its main goal is to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, which will significantly improve its ability to deter other countries and project power far and wide without having to surface often. The agreement also prioritizes the sharing of cutting-edge technology in cyberwarfare, AI, and quantum technologies, guaranteeing that the three countries stay at the forefront of defense innovation.
By 2024, the nuclear submarine deal has progressed significantly, enhancing Australia's strategic posture in the region. With its vital shipping lanes and developing economic centers, the Indo-Pacific region has taken center stage in the dynamics of world power. As power dynamics in the region intensify—particularly concerning China's growing aggressiveness in the South China Sea—it will strengthen Australia's position there.
Through this alliance, the Allies hope to strengthen their nuclear deterrence. The development of their military capabilities will take place in three stages. Australia and the United States will invest in submarine infrastructure during the first phase, which will also see Australian submariners embedded in American and British submarines and U.S. submarines visiting Australian ports. In the second phase, "Submarine Rotational Force West" will be established, comprising Australian-based U.S. and U.K. submarines. Australia is anticipated to acquire three to five Virginia-class submarines by the early 2030s. The third phase will see Australia and the UK start developing SSN-AUKUS, a cooperatively developed submarine that will be constructed by the 2040s.
India and the Quad's Response
India’s response to AUKUS has been pragmatic and nuanced in maintaining strategic autonomy while also balancing growing security cooperation with the Quad (Australia, Japan, India, and the United States). India recognizes the pact as part of a larger effort to balance China’s influence in the region. India’s primary focus remains on strengthening its naval capabilities and enhancing interoperability with Quad members.
AUKUS provides strategic advantages to India by indirectly reinforcing its deterrent posture in the Indo-Pacific. The advanced technologies being developed under AUKUS, particularly in cyber defense and AI, could benefit broader Quad initiatives, enabling enhanced collaboration in countering China’s growing influence. Maritime security, which remains a critical concern for India, stands to gain from the renewed focus on naval power in the Indo-Pacific.
However, India remains cautious about fully aligning with AUKUS. India values its non-aligned strategic autonomy, ensuring that its partnerships are flexible and not constrained by rigid alliances. Nonetheless, the pact complements India's efforts to strengthen security and safeguard its interests, particularly in the context of increasing Chinese activities in the Indian Ocean and at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Women and Youth in Indo-Pacific Security
The discourse on Indo-Pacific security, often dominated by discussions on military hardware and great power politics, is gradually shifting towards more inclusive approaches that incorporate the perspectives of women and youth. In 2024, there is a growing recognition of the importance of diverse leadership in addressing complex security challenges. Women’s participation in defense, diplomacy, and international relations has increased, particularly in Quad countries where female leaders are taking on pivotal roles in policy formulation and think tanks. The conversation surrounding Indo-Pacific security, which was previously mostly focused on great power politics and military hardware, is gradually moving toward more inclusive strategies that take into account the opinions of women and young people. In 2024, the value of diversified leadership in tackling difficult security issues will become increasingly apparent. Women are now more involved in international affairs, defense, and diplomacy, especially in the Quad countries where female leaders are playing crucial roles in think tanks and policy development.
Countries like Australia, India, and the United States are seeing more women in senior defense roles, including positions in strategic policy and security advisory councils. For example, the emergence of female policymakers in Indian foreign policy circles has given defense diplomacy new insights, particularly about maritime security and regional cooperation. Furthermore, young people are playing a bigger role in determining the direction of Indo-Pacific security through university-led security dialogues, international relations fellowships, and leadership development programs.
Representation is just one aspect of inclusivity in security policy; another is the integration of a wider range of perspectives and experiences that contribute to a more durable peace. To create policies that are reflective of societal needs and ambitions and guarantee that security is both comprehensive and sustainable, women and youth must be included in Indo-Pacific security talks. As seen in programs like India’s National Cadet Corps and international educational exchanges, empowering youth to engage in diplomacy fosters long-term peace and cooperation.
China’s Strategic Adjustments and Information Warfare
China views the pact as an attempt at containment. Chinese officials have consistently criticized AUKUS, portraying it as a destabilizing force that escalates regional tensions and fuels an arms race. However, AUKUS’ architects argue that the partnership seeks to maintain stability by deterring aggression, not provoking it.
China is anticipated to modify its military and diplomatic tactics in reaction to AUKUS. China hopes to offset the strategic realignments brought about by the agreement by strengthening its military presence in the South China Sea and extending its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Southeast Asia. As part of its strategic response to the US's rising influence in the region, it is fortifying its military cooperation with Russia.
Furthermore, China could deploy information warfare more frequently, which is an important part of its defensive plan. Narrative control, disinformation campaigns, and cybersecurity risks are anticipated to be crucial instruments in thwarting the AUKUS alliance's military and diplomatic advancements. China’s ability to shape regional narratives through its media presence and cyber operations could complicate the efforts of AUKUS and the Quad to maintain a “rules-based order” in the Indo-Pacific. Countering these disinformation efforts will require coordinated cyber defense strategies and a focus on preserving the integrity of information in the region.
Strategic Outlook for the Indo-Pacific
The strategic significance of AUKUS is far-reaching, with implications for the geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific. As China's military power grows, the deal has triggered concerns from China, which has viewed it as a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but AUKUS allies argue it aligns with non-proliferation principles and is expected to increase AUKUS allied submarine capabilities by 25%. AUKUS reflects a broader trend of enhanced military and technological cooperation among like-minded democracies to counterbalance China's influence in the region.
The engagement of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has addressed some of the worries regarding the transfer of nuclear technology to a non-nuclear state such as Australia. Australia’s adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) helped mitigate fears regarding the transfer of nuclear technology. IAEA’s monitoring ensures that Australia's submarines only use nuclear propulsion and don't divert the material to be used as weapons. IAEA participation guarantees Australia's adherence to its non-proliferation commitments offers transparency and reassures the international community about its compliance with international nuclear regulations. The IAEA's function is critical to preserving the pact's legality and credibility. In addition, the AUKUS agreement also strengthens technical cooperation between the allies in emerging sectors including robotics, sophisticated missiles, and anti-submarine warfare. The deal also strengthens U.S. ties with other allies in the region and complements other security agreements like the Quad.
In conclusion, the AUKUS treaty holds the potential to spur innovation and strengthen the allies' strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific, despite significant regulatory and bureaucratic obstacles. Strict U.S. export rules such as ITAR make the successful transfer of nuclear-powered submarine technology difficult, and meeting ambitious timeframes will require navigating these legal frameworks. The pact's intended deterrence against escalating regional threats, particularly from China, may be weakened by delays in submarine construction. The collaboration is further complicated by difficulties securing sensitive technologies and coordinating industrial policy in cyber cooperation and artificial intelligence. Despite these challenges, AUKUS has the potential to significantly improve member security and technology capabilities, offering a potent counterbalance in the region, if it can settle these problems and simplify cooperation.
---
References
1. "AUKUS and the Indo-Pacific: Strategic Imperatives for Australia, the UK, and the US." https://www.brookings.edu/articles/australias-nuclear-submarines-and-aukus-the-view-from-jakarta/
2. "China Terms AUKUS Pact as Threat to Stability in Indo-Pacific." The Hindu, 17 Sept. 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/explained-the-aukus-deal-to-get-nuclear-powered-submarines-for-australia/article66624464.ece
3. The Guardian,"India’s Response to AUKUS and the Strategic Balance in the Indo-Pacific." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/14/what-is-the-aukus-submarine-deal-and-what-does-it-mean-the-key-facts
4. Mishra, Vivek. "India and AUKUS: Navigating the Strategic Landscape." Observer Research Foundation (ORF), 22 Sept. 2021, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/aukus-an-asian-and-european-perspective
5. "Women in National Security: Leadership in Quad Countries." First Post, 10 Jan. 2024, https://www.firstpost.com/tag/aukus-agreement/
6. "China’s Information Warfare in Response to AUKUS." Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), 5 Oct. 2021, https://www.idsa.in/idsa/issuebrief/Road-Ahead-for-AUKUS
7. Jones, Bruce, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Ryan Hass, Amy J. Nelson, Tom Stefanick, Constanze Stelzenmüller, and Caitlin Talmadge. "The AUKUS Pact and Indo-Pacific Security: Strategic Implications and Risks." Brookings Institution, 13 Mar. 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/around-the-halls-aukus-defines-an-emerging-alliance-at-sea/
8. CFR - Kahn, Lauren. “AUKUS Explained: How Will the Trilateral Pact Shape Indo-Pacific Security?” Council on Foreign Relations, 12 June 2023, www.cfr.org/in-brief/aukus-explained-how-will-trilateral-pact-shape-indo-pacific-security.